Are migrants really a financial burden?

Many people think that immigrants use too much of the public system. The latest research, reviewed by independent researchers, looked at more than ten years of data from all EU countries. This research tested this assumption.

The Net Fiscal Position (what people cost vs. contribute)

The net fiscal position shows the difference between the welfare benefits received by each resident and the taxes and contributions paid. This applies to both native-born residents and migrants.

A positive number means the state pays out more than it gets back. A negative number means the opposite.

Native-born citizens cost the state the most.

From 2007 to 2018, native-born citizens had the highest net fiscal cost to public budgets on average across all EU countries.

€1,585.
The average yearly cost to the government for a native-born person.

Migrants cost the state less.

Both EU migrants (€469) and extra-EU migrants (€493) take three times less from public budgets per year than native-born citizens.

This difference of about €1000 between the native population and migrants can be seen in the TransEuroWorkS data, and recent research, independently reviewed (Boffi et al., 2025), confirms this across 15 EU countries. Even when we consider age and other demographics, the pattern stays the same. The research shows that problems in the labor market, like lower wages and discrimination in hiring, are what hold extra-EU migrants back, not any reliance on welfare.

Studies using 100% administrative register data of entire resident populations support this finding. Martinsen & Pons Rotger (2017) looked at all the records of the total population in Denmark, where they did not agree with the idea that EU migrants are a "welfare burden." They showed that EU migrants are actually a positive contribution to the country's finances.

Public Opinion

Even though the facts show that immigrants are a net contributor to the economy, public opinion about immigration is different. The latest Standard Eurobarometer 105 (Spring 2026) shows that fewer Europeans are worried about immigration than last year but can be attributed to shifting attention to other topics like rising cost of living and global security.

Austria

14%
say that immigration is a major issue in Austria.

The latest Standard Eurobarometer 105 (Spring 2026) shows that in Austria, 14% of people are worried, the same as in Germany (14%) and Ireland (14%). Even in the UK, only 24% name immigration as a top concern. People are less concerned about this because other issues are more important, like the cost of living. The Eurobarometer survey only lets people choose two top worries. Anxiety about the cost of living and global security has pushed immigration down the list. It's a change in focus, not a change in the impact of migration.

Perception vs. Reality

The public is more concerned about the budget than the actual budget. This shows that the public is not paying attention to the facts.

The chart makes it clear that even in countries where migrants contribute a lot to the state budget, a significant portion of public still perceives migrants as a major concern, demonstrating a disconnect between reality and how migrants are perceived.

Why this gap?

To understand the net fiscal position, you have to look at both sides. This means you have to consider how much each group contributes in taxes and how much they receive in benefits.

Native people receive the most public benefits.

Native-born citizens have the highest net cost because of an aging population and high pension costs. This is not because migrants overuse the welfare system.

According to the TransEuroWorkS cash-only data:

  • Native-born: Pay €3,106 in taxes each year and receive €4,691 in cash benefits each year.

Independent research (Fiorio et al., 2024) confirms this gap across the EU-14. They show that when including health, education, and VAT, the average immigrant contributes +€1,510/year, compared to just +€32/year for native-born citizens.

This difference in favor of migrants is true for almost all income groups, mostly because migrants are younger and use fewer benefits like pensions due to old age.

Does this pattern hold everywhere?

The EU average is a good starting point, but every country has its own welfare system, demographics, and labor market. A peer-reviewed study by the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) co-authored by Christl et al. (2022) estimated a wider contribution to the government that includes benefits like education and healthcare, not just cash transfers and direct taxes. The study looked at all EU countries and grouped them into five categories based on how much welfare the country provides.

A more complicated picture

EU-wide, the latest figures (2022) put native-born citizens as the biggest net cost, about €476 per person per year, while both migrant groups cost less: €208 for EU migrants and €219 for non-EU migrants.

Methodology

The researchers created a general financial model that considers not only money, but also the value of public services people use.

  • Healthcare: Public health spending divided by age using OECD/Eurostat data.
    Bias: It assumes migrants use healthcare like native-born people of the same age. This probably makes migrants' healthcare costs seem higher than they are — migrants are healthier on average, and they also use healthcare less because of language and trust barriers, or because they lack access.
  • Education: Public education spending is measured and assigned to the students who receive it.
    Bias: It charges migrants for childhood schooling they mostly received abroad for free, so it makes their education costs seem higher than they really are.
  • Social housing: The average amount spent on public housing, mapped to households that rent.
  • VAT: Estimated from how much people spend, then split in proportion to how much each household earns.

Because this version includes VAT and the value of public services, it's not comparable to the cash-only figures from Boffi et al. in Section 1.

But that average hides huge variation by welfare model. In the Mediterranean countries, EU migrants are enormous net contributors, over €2,600/year.

Explore & Simulate Levers

Hover over a country pill below to instantly change the simulator to its welfare regime, or use the dropdown menu on the right:

Sweden Finland Ireland UK Netherlands Germany France Austria Italy Spain Greece Portugal Cyprus Poland

Interactive Policy Simulator: What actually makes a difference? Boffi et al. (2025) broke down the difference in financial resources between migrants and natives. We can create a model to simulate how recognizing vocational and secondary qualifications, recognizing qualifitcations, and removing integration/discrimination barriers for extra-EU migrants would have an impact. Adjust the sliders below to see the changes.

Recognition of Professional and Secondary School Degrees: i 0%
Recognition of Higher Education University Degrees: i 0%
Fixing Hiring Bias and Systemic Barriers: i 0%
Welfare State Explorer
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Following the money

The average for each person can hide a lot of information. Instead, look at the actual totals. In Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK, EU migrants paid more in taxes than they received in benefits every year of the studied period (from 2007 for Austria and Germany, and 2009 for the Netherlands and the UK, through 2013).

Even without pensions

EU migrants are, on average, younger than the native population. This has led to concerns that the surplus is like an unpaid future pension bill. If we remove the spending on pensions (the dashed line), we can see that the extra money mostly stays in the economy. Only the Netherlands dips below zero.

Why are these numbers estimates? The study shows that national government databases do not track the nationality or citizenship of people who pay taxes or receive welfare benefits. The authors had to create expert economic models using LFS and census microdata, making conservative assumptions (like equal health access).

Hover over any point on the chart to see and compare values from all four countries.

Migrants take less than their fair share.

Across all four countries, a clear pattern emerges where the share of benefits EU migrants claim is only about half their share of the population.

  • Austria: 4.9% of the population, but only 2.6% of the benefits.
  • Germany: 3.7% of the population, but only 1.9% of benefits.
  • Netherlands: 2.3% of the population, but only 1.1% of benefits.
  • UK: 3.8% of the population, but only 1.9% of benefits.

This pattern of population to welfare share is always the same, which goes against the idea that the welfare state is a magnet for people.

This idea is also supported by a thorough review of real-world data on immigration and welfare systems. The review, by Allen et al. (2025) in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, found no solid proof that welfare programs attract migrants. It also confirmed that immigrants aged 18 to 65 help carry the financial challenges of an aging population.

The Demographic Advantage

Why do migrants use public services and benefits so little? Because of their demographic profile:

  • People in the prime working age group (ages 20 to 44) They are mostly in their peak tax-paying years. In the Netherlands, 58% of EU migrants are in this group (compared to only 33% of the native population). In Germany, it is 49%.
  • There are fewer school-aged children: Children under 18 make up just 10% of EU migrants in Germany (compared to 17% overall) and 13% in the Netherlands (compared to 22% overall).
  • Higher Education Levels: 28.7% of EU migrants have university-level degrees (compared to 24.2% of the native population). In Austria, 30% of EU migrants have a university education, compared to just 17% of the total population.

When they arrive as young, educated adults, they start paying taxes right away. This means the state where they live never paid for their schooling, and they aren't drawing pensions yet.

The trend is real.

These figures come from a report by a group of experts (Bogdanov, Hristova, Yotov, Bruno, Valcke & Barber, ECAS, 2014). While they are expert estimates based on data from the registry, the trend they show has been confirmed by other researchers. Boffi et al. (2025) studied how migrants' financial situation in the EU has changed from 2007 to 2018. They found that it has improved after 2011, while the financial situation of people born in the EU has not changed much. D'Albis et al. (2018) used a different methodology and reached the same conclusion.

Myths and Facts

Despite the clear evidence, some myths still circulate in the public discussion. These myths come up again and again, based on age old assumptions that turn out to be wrong.

To understand the full impact of migration, we need to look beyond general statistics and focus on specific discussions. By addressing the three most common myths, and looking at the research that proves them wrong, we can get a better understanding.

Debate 1: Static snapshots versus long-term reality

The Static Baseline: Typical lifecycle models (such as Christl et al., 2022) come to the conclusion that migrants have a net lifetime deficit. This baseline assumes that their wage levels, integration barriers, and migration status don't change over the lifetime of migrants. This static view predicts deficits by assuming that migrants will never earn more , that integration never happens and that there will be no return migration, which the authors themselves noted as a limitation.

The Dynamic Reality: The long-term impact is more complicated. When economists consider how people behave and how that affects the economy, the projected deficit gets smaller or even disappears.

  • Education Savings: Immigrants arrive as young, educated adults. The host nation doesn't pay for schooling, effectively gaining a huge base of educated workers with 0€ spent on their education, where static models incorrectly add these costs to the migrants.
  • Return Migration: While European data show that 20% to 50% of migrants return within 5 to 15 years, it reaches 40% to 50% within 15 years for groups like Turkish economic migrants in Germany (Adda et al., 2022). They contribute during their peak working years and don't receive a local pension, while restrictions on staying in the country affect this and create a deficit of up to €1,921 for each migrant.
  • Demographic Dividend: When people of working age arrive, the labor force immediately grows. The Overlapping-Generation (OLG) model analysis shows that they reduce the amount of money spent per person on retirees and old-age social security, which creates a structural "demographic dividend".
  • How the two groups complement each other: Immigrant workers increase the productivity of the native population, lead to more investments, and increase the amount of money collected in taxes because they work together with the native population in ways that make both groups more productive (Dustmann et al., 2013; OBR, 2024).

Debate 2: Low-wage workers

The Myth: Low-wage and migrants fleeing from war or persecution use a lot of services and pay little tax, so they are a net cost to the government.

The Direct Snapshot: Typical models estimate how much low-wage earners will spend in their lifetime. For example, the UK Migration Advisory Committee (MAC, 2025) estimates that while skilled main applicants add £689,000, health and care workers contribute £54,000, and family routes result in a lifetime deficit of £109,000.

Other factors: However, traditional accounting methods often don't consider other important factors like how costs change over time, how much education costs, and how wages change over time.

  • Static vs. Dynamic Accounting (Oxford Economics, 2018): Estimates show that the average extra-EU migrant living in the UK costs about £1,700 per year. But when we look at the whole lifecycle, they add £28,000 to the economy. This shows that short-term pictures can distort the picture.
  • The Education Gift (OBR, 2024): Typically, immigrants are charged for their children's education, which their home countries paid for. The OBR says that a migrant who arrives at age 25 with average earnings will contribute £341,000 over their lifetime. This is more than a UK-born worker because the host state paid nothing for their childhood.
  • Economic Spillovers (Dustmann et al., 2013): Simple accounting doesn't consider how immigrants affect other wages. In the UK, Dustmann et al. found that immigration can increase wages for natives in the middle and at the top, which can lead to higher taxes overall.
  • Integration Over Time: The OECD finds that the difference in employment and earnings between migrants and natives gets smaller within the first ten years. This is because migrants gain local experience and language skills, which leads to higher taxes.

Debate 3: Economic Growth and Job Displacement

The Myth: High migration means less growth for the economy, strain on infrastructure, and take jobs from natives.

Reality: Instead of taking jobs, migration helps fill jobs and leads to economic growth. The IMF (2024) predicts that migration will increase the EU's economic output by 0.5% by 2030. Between 2019 and 2023, extra-EU citizens filled 64% of new jobs in the EU. At the same time, the unemployment rate among EU citizens reached record lows. This shows that displacement is not happening.

A study by d'Albis et al. (2019) over 19 OECD countries showed that a migration shock (+1 migrant for every 1,000 people) has a positive economic effect. The GDP per capita grew by up to 0.31%, net taxes increased by 1.11%, and public spending grew by 0.47%. This resulted in a temporary improvement of +0.12% in the overall financial situation, which returned to normal after five years.

Even for refugees, the financial cost is relatively small. A 2024 EcoAustria study found that the cost of refugees in Austria is about 0.4% to 0.5% of the country's GDP. This cost decreases each year as refugees find work. Ruist's (2020) global stress test shows that even in a worst-case scenario where the EU hosted all the current refugees from Asia and Africa, the annual cost would be a manageable 0.6% of GDP.

The Austrian government spends about 12.1% of its budget on Economic Affairs. This includes corporate subsidies and infrastructure. During recent economic downturns, the state introduced corporate aid and energy subsidies that changed by over 0.5% of GDP in a single cycle. This shows that similar amounts of money are usually managed.

When the public treasury regularly manages business subsidies that fluctuate by larger margins than the cost of humanitarian integration, depicting the refugees as a threat to the country's financial situation is a political debate about priorities and is not connected to academic consensus.

Lifecycle Deficit: Static vs. Dynamic
Net Present Value Cost to the State (0-80 years, €/capita)

What does this mean?

Research shows that the idea that immigrants are a financial burden is not true. Across the EU, natives tend to use more public money than migrants. This is mostly because of aging populations and pensions. In many welfare systems, migrants are important contributors. The data shows that EU migrants have been contributing to the budget surplus in countries with year-on-year records, even when pensions are excluded. This disproves the narratives about unpaid future pensions.

The data is clear. But it should never have been the measure. A person's value should not be based on their contributions to profit as human beings are no vessel for profit.